3430 INFLUENCE OF GROUND MOTION MODEL SELECTION ON SEISMIC HAZARD FOR JOHANNESBURG
Abstract
The selection of ground motion prediction models (GMMs) plays a crucial role in assessing seismic hazard levels in a specific region. This study focuses on investigating the influence of GMM selection on seismic hazard assessment for Johannesburg, South Africa. Most of the seismic events affecting Johannesburg are related to mining activities and water ingress into the underground mine voids. The most seismically active regions in South Africa include areas around Klerksdorp, Welkom, and Carletonville. These regions experience a significant number of earthquakes, with mining activities being a major factor contributing to seismic events. Ten ground motion prediction equations were selected from regions of similar tectonic setting and were assessed if they fit to the available local data. Six of these were also compared to the ground motions produced by the 14 August 2014 earthquake which occurred in the Orkney area, one of the mining area in South Africa. Sensitivity analysis were also carried out to assess the influence of GMPEs to the seismic hazard of Johannesburg. The results indicate that the choice of GMM significantly affects the estimation of seismic hazard levels in Johannesburg. Different GMMs can lead to varying predictions of ground shaking intensity, which directly impacts risk assessments and engineering design considerations. The findings highlight the importance of carefully selecting appropriate GMMs tailored to the specific geological and tectonic characteristics of Johannesburg. Understanding how different models perform in this region is essential for accurate seismic risk mitigation strategies.
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Brassnavy Manzunzu, Vunganai Midzi, Raymond John Durrheim
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
THE INSTITUTE, AS A BODY, IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STATEMENTS AND OPINIONS ADVANCED IN ANY OF ITS PUBLICATIONS.
Copyright© 1978 by The Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. All rights reserved. Multiple copying of the contents of this publication or parts thereof without permission is in breach of copyright, but permission is hereby given for the copying of titles and abstracts of papers and names of authors. Permission to copy illustrations and short extracts from the text of individual contributions is usually given upon written application to the Institute, provided that the source (and where appropriate, the copyright) is acknowledged. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of review or criticism under The Copyright Act no. 98, 1978, Section 12, of the Republic of South Africa, a single copy of an article may be supplied by a library for the purposes of research or private study. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission of the publishers. Multiple copying of the contents of the publication without permission is always illegal.
U.S. Copyright Law applicable to users In the U.S.A.
The appearance of the statement of copyright at the bottom of the first page of an article appearing in this journal indicates that the copyright holder consents to the making of copies of the article for personal or internal use. This consent is given on condition that the copier pays the stated fee for each copy of a paper beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law. The fee is to be paid through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., Operations Center, P.O. Box 765, Schenectady, New York 12301, U.S.A. This consent does not extend to other kinds of copying, such as copying for general distribution, for advertising or promotional purposes, for creating new collective works, or for resale.
