3430 INFLUENCE OF GROUND MOTION MODEL SELECTION ON SEISMIC HAZARD FOR JOHANNESBURG
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17159/Abstract
The selection of ground motion prediction models (GMMs) plays a crucial role in assessing seismic hazard levels in a specific region. This study focuses on investigating the influence of GMM selection on seismic hazard assessment for Johannesburg, South Africa. Most of the seismic events affecting Johannesburg are related to mining activities and water ingress into the underground mine voids. The most seismically active regions in South Africa include areas around Klerksdorp, Welkom, and Carletonville. These regions experience a significant number of earthquakes, with mining activities being a major factor contributing to seismic events. Ten ground motion prediction equations were selected from regions of similar tectonic setting and were assessed if they fit to the available local data. Six of these were also compared to the ground motions produced by the 14 August 2014 earthquake which occurred in the Orkney area, one of the mining area in South Africa. Sensitivity analysis were also carried out to assess the influence of GMPEs to the seismic hazard of Johannesburg. The results indicate that the choice of GMM significantly affects the estimation of seismic hazard levels in Johannesburg. Different GMMs can lead to varying predictions of ground shaking intensity, which directly impacts risk assessments and engineering design considerations. The findings highlight the importance of carefully selecting appropriate GMMs tailored to the specific geological and tectonic characteristics of Johannesburg. Understanding how different models perform in this region is essential for accurate seismic risk mitigation strategies.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Brassnavy Manzunzu, Vunganai Midzi, Raymond John Durrheim
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