Coal-based energy, communities and the Just Transition in South Africa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17159/Abstract
The growing global concern over the impacts of climate change, attributable to fossil fuel energy sources, has led to the widely-shared goal for a “just transition” to cleaner energy sources and reduced dependence on carbon-based energy sources. As the world’s 14th biggest CO2 emitter and particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, South Africa must embark on a just transition pathway. This paper provides an in-depth view of the coal mining industry in South Africa and questions the narrative that premature mine closure is inevitable. Using data from multiple sources, 16 coal-fired power stations, 66 operating coal mines, 69 mining host communities and 21 municipalities are mapped and analysed. Community well-being is measured with a set of SDG indicators and municipalities are assessed with financial audits. Our research shows that five coal plants (8.9 GW) and 15 coal mines will probably close by 2030 (29.5 Mtpa) and a further four plants (14 GW) and 23 mines (106 Mtpa) will close by 2040. Thus, the shift to cleaner energy will likely occur without the premature closure implied by the ‘just transition’. The impact of mine closure on the 2.5 million residents of host communities is significant, particularly as levels of income, employment and education are already very low and many host municipalities are in financial distress. The South African approach to the “just transition” needs to take local realities into account and the narrative needs to support an effective transition that does not undermine energy security and economic growth.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Megan Jane Cole, Mzila Mthenjane, Andrew van Zyl
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